Temperature, morbidity, and behavior in milder climates

Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in extreme weather events and several studies have considered the effects of temperature on human health, especially in countries with hotter climates. We extended this literature by modeling the relationship between temperature and morbidity in a country with a temperate maritime climate, and by considering the role of behavioral responses. Using weekly data on accident and emergency (A&E) attendances at 429 hospitals across England from 2010 to 2015, we found that while cold weather was associated with an initial reduction in A&E attendances, it appears to be a result of postponements to subsequent weeks. However, for hotter temperatures, we found substantial increases in overall attendances, which were not offset by subsequent reductions. Our results show clear effects of temperature on morbidity, even in relatively milder climates, with implications for future healthcare demand and the overall cost of climate change.