Review of hybrid emissions prediction tools and uncertainty quantification methods for gas turbine combustion systems

There is a need for fast and reliable emissions prediction tools in the design, development and performance analysis of gas turbine combustion systems to predict emissions such as NOx, CO. Hybrid emissions prediction tools are defined as modelling approaches that (1) use computational fluid dynamics (CFD) or component modelling methods to generate flow field information, and (2) integrate them with detailed chemical kinetic modelling of emissions using chemical reactor network (CRN) techniques. This paper presents a review and comparison of hybrid emissions prediction tools and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for gas turbine combustion systems. In the first part of this study, CRN solvers are compared on the bases of some selected attributes which facilitate flexibility of network modelling, implementation of large chemical kinetic mechanisms and automatic construction of CRN. The second part of this study deals with UQ, which is becoming an important aspect of the development and use of computational tools in gas turbine combustion chamber design and analysis. Therefore, the use of UQ technique as part of the generalized modelling approach is important to develop a UQenabled hybrid emissions prediction tool. UQ techniques are compared on the bases of the number of evaluations and corresponding computational cost to achieve desired accuracy levels and their ability to treat deterministic models for emissions prediction as black boxes that do not require modifications. Recommendations for the development of UQenabled emissions prediction tools are made.