MODELLING NUTRIENT EMISSIONS INTO WATERBODIES CAUSED BY VARIOUS LAND-USE

Changes in land use, driven by urban development, economic growth, and transportation, are placing considerable pressure on the environment. In Ireland, the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector accounts for over 40% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions and significantly impacts water quality. Various models, such as SPARROW, SWAT, and MARINA and other nutrient export models, have been developed and used to model the effects of human activities on water quality. In Ireland, The GOBLIN model, has been developed to explore land-use scenarios that align with climate neutrality goals. However, to date these models are not linked and there is a significant gap in relation to validating such models using water quality data within catchments. This study combines water quality modelling at sub-catchment and catchment scales with land-use modelling systems to improve estimates of nutrient emissions from different land uses. Using Ireland as a case study, this research refines how nutrient losses from sources, including septic tanks, agriculture, urban wastewater and forestry, are evaluated within broader land-use scenarios that could deliver climate neutrality. A framework is being developed to validate these integrated models, enabling their application in land-use and land-management scenario modelling. The insights aim to guide sustainable land-use decisions that reduce nutrient loading in water bodies, supporting both rural development and environmental protection.