Impacts of climate change on mid-twenty-first-century rainfall in Ireland: a high-resolution regional climate model ensemble approach

The impacts of climate change on precipitation over Ireland are assessed for the mid-century period 2041-2060 using an ensemble of downscaled climate simulations, based on medium-to-low and high emission scenarios. Results show significant projected decreases in mean annual, spring and summer precipitation amounts by mid-century. The projected decreases are largest for summer, with reductions ranging from 0 to 13% and from 3 to 20% for the medium-to-low and high emission scenarios, respectively. The frequencies of heavy precipitation events show notable increases of approximately 20% during the winter and autumn months. The number of extended dry periods is projected to increase substantially by mid-century during autumn and summer. The projected increases in dry periods are largest for summer, with values ranging from 12 to 40% for both emission scenarios. Regional variations of projected precipitation change remain statistically elusive.