Degree centrality and the probability of an infectious disease outbreak in towns within a region

Elizabeth Hunter, John Kelleher, Brian Mac Namee

Research output: Chapter in Book or Conference Publication/ProceedingConference Publicationpeer-review

Abstract

Agent-based models can be used to help study the spread of infectious diseases within a population. As no individual town is in isolation, commuting patterns into and out of a town or city are a vital part of understanding the course of an outbreak within a town. Thus the centrality of a town in a network of towns, such as a county or an entire country, should be an important influence on an outbreak. We propose looking at the probability that an outbreak enters a given town in a region and comparing that probability to the centrality of the town. Our results show that as expected there is a relationship between centrality and outbreaks. Specifically, we found that the degree of centrality of a town affected the likelihood of an outbreak within the network spreading to the town. We also found that for towns where an outbreak begins the degree of centrality of the town affects how the outbreak spreads in the network.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019
EditorsPilar Fuster-Parra, Oscar Valero Sierra
PublisherEUROSIS
Pages195-202
Number of pages8
ISBN (Electronic)9789492859099
Publication statusPublished - 2019
Externally publishedYes
Event33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference, ESM 2019 - Plama de Mallorca, Spain
Duration: 28 Oct 201930 Oct 2019

Publication series

Name33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference 2019, ESM 2019

Conference

Conference33rd Annual European Simulation and Modelling Conference, ESM 2019
Country/TerritorySpain
CityPlama de Mallorca
Period28/10/1930/10/19

Keywords

  • Agent-based model
  • Centrality
  • Compartmental
  • Discrete Simulation
  • Health Sciences

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