Complexity Theory and Child Protection and Welfare: A Tool of Hindsight and/or a Tool to Assist Improved Decision Making in Child Protection and Welfare Work

Child abuse and neglect is a 'wicked problem' (Devaney, J. and Spratt, T. (2009) 'Child abuse as a complex and wicked problem: Reflecting on policy developments in the United Kingdom in working with children and families with multiple problems', Children and Youth Services Review, 31(6), pp. 635-41.). Child Protection and Welfare (CPW) systems are open systems in which a wide variety of practitioners and families themselves contribute to outcomes. Small interacting changes in one part of a CPW system can lead to unpredictable and systemic effects so linear, technocratic solutions are not sufficient in addressing this complexity. Whilst CPW systems may aim to make clear roles and responsibilities, steered by legislation and regulatory guidance, complex systems do not behave as system designers expect. Recent literature has demonstrated a turn to complexity theory and systems theory concepts for understanding and working in the world of child protection. This article suggests a practice framework based on complexity theory concepts of self-organisation/emergence/adaptation, path-dependency and bifurcation. The utility of the framework is tested by its application to a fictionalised case study built on a thematic analysis of five National Review Panel published case reviews in the Irish child protection context (2019-2020). We argue that complexity theory may be a useful tool for both post hoc analytics as well as providing a proactive tool for application to practice to assist decision making in CPW systems, services and organisations.