Beyond the dominant party system: the transformation of party politics in Northern Ireland

For almost a century, unionists won a majority of seats in every election to Northern Ireland's regional parliament or assembly. That unbroken run came to an end in March 2017 when unionists became a minority in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time. Much scholarly analysis of this new dispensation characterises it as part of a long-term shift away from the binary politics of ethnonational division and majoritarianism as support grows for parties aligned with neither unionism nor nationalism. This paper offers an alternative analysis that emphasises the persistent importance of constitutionally related majorities. It argues that the emergence in 2017 of a non-unionist majority in the Assembly removed the last vestiges of a dominant party system that had endured in one form or another since the establishment of Northern Ireland. It marks the birth of a new party system, bringing about a much more fundamental shift in the dynamics of political competition than is generally understood. Rather than moving the politics of Northern Ireland beyond constitutional questions, it brings those questions to the forefront, with profound implications for the long-term relationship between Northern Ireland on one hand and the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain on the other.