A nearest neighbour linear perturbation model for river flow forecasting

The non-parametric nearest neighbour method (NNM) for river flow forecasting is explored and developed further as the nearest neighbour linear perturbation model (NNLPM), which combines the nearest neighbour concept with the concept of perturbations from a mean value, as used in the linear perturbation model (LPM). The NNLPM model is tested on six catchments and its results are compared with those of the simple linear model (SLM) and the linear perturbation model (LPM). The results indicate that the NNLPM is a more reliable indicator of the discharge forecast than either the SLM or the LPM in the case of non-seasonal catchments.